Polymarket

Compare Synth predictions against Polymarket prices.

Daily Up/Down

Endpoint:

GET /insights/polymarket/up-down/daily

Response:

response.json

{
  "current_price": 88893.80,
  "start_price": 87795.99,
  "current_outcome": "Up",
  "synth_probability_up": 0.9968,
  "synth_outcome": "Up",
  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.9845,
  "polymarket_outcome": "Up",
  "event_end_time": "2026-01-22T17:00:00+00:00"
}

Hourly Up/Down

Endpoint:

GET /insights/polymarket/up-down/hourly

Response:

{
  "current_price": 88895.82,
  "start_price": 89058.32,
  "current_outcome": "Down",
  "synth_probability_up": 0.3335,
  "synth_outcome": "Down",
  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.495,
  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
  "event_end_time": "2026-01-22T17:00:00+00:00"
}

Price Range

Endpoint:

GET /insights/polymarket/range

Response:

response.json

[
  {
    "title": "[90, 0, 92, 0]",
    "ref_prices": [90, 0, 92, 0],
    "current_price": 88862.66,
    "synth_probability": 0.0,
    "polymarket_probability": 0.053,
    "event_end_time": "2026-01-22T17:00:00+00:00"
  }
]

Example: Find Arbitrage

example.py

import requests

response = requests.get(
    "https://api.synthdata.co/insights/polymarket/up-down/daily",
    headers={"Authorization": "Apikey YOUR_API_KEY"},
    params={"asset": "BTC"}
)

data = response.json()
synth = data['synth_probability_up']
poly = data['polymarket_probability_up']
edge = synth - poly

if abs(edge) > 0.05:
    if edge > 0:
        print(f"BUY 'Up' on Polymarket - Synth says {synth:.1%} vs market {poly:.1%}")
    else:
        print(f"BUY 'Down' on Polymarket - Synth says {1-synth:.1%} vs market {1-poly:.1%}")